Liberty Media Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 48.70
| LLYVK Stock | 71.91 0.60 0.84% |
Liberty |
Liberty Media Target Price Odds to finish below 48.70
The tendency of Liberty Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 48.70 or more in 90 days |
| 71.91 | 90 days | 48.70 | about 36.45 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Liberty Media to drop to 48.70 or more in 90 days from now is about 36.45 (This Liberty Media probability density function shows the probability of Liberty Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Liberty Media price to stay between 48.70 and its current price of 71.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 61.38 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.04 . This indicates Liberty Media market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Liberty Media is expected to follow. Additionally Liberty Media has an alpha of 0.808, implying that it can generate a 0.81 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Liberty Media Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Liberty Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Liberty Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Liberty Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Liberty Media Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Liberty Media is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Liberty Media's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Liberty Media, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Liberty Media within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.81 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.40 |
Liberty Media Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Liberty Media for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Liberty Media can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Liberty is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (142 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Liberty Media generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Liberty Media has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Liberty Media Announces Live Group Spinoff Plans - Digital Music News |
Liberty Media Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Liberty Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Liberty Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Liberty Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 305 M |
Liberty Media Technical Analysis
Liberty Media's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Liberty Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Liberty Media. In general, you should focus on analyzing Liberty Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Liberty Media Predictive Forecast Models
Liberty Media's time-series forecasting models is one of many Liberty Media's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Liberty Media's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Liberty Media
Checking the ongoing alerts about Liberty Media for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Liberty Media help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Liberty is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (142 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Liberty Media generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Liberty Media has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Liberty Media Announces Live Group Spinoff Plans - Digital Music News |
Check out Liberty Media Backtesting, Liberty Media Valuation, Liberty Media Correlation, Liberty Media Hype Analysis, Liberty Media Volatility, Liberty Media History as well as Liberty Media Performance. For more information on how to buy Liberty Stock please use our How to buy in Liberty Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Movies & Entertainment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Liberty Media. If investors know Liberty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Liberty Media listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.54) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Liberty Media is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Liberty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Liberty Media's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Liberty Media's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Liberty Media's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Liberty Media's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Liberty Media's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Liberty Media is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Liberty Media's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.