Lumos Pharma Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.75
| LUMO Stock | USD 4.34 0.01 0.23% |
Lumos |
Lumos Pharma Target Price Odds to finish over 11.75
The tendency of Lumos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 11.75 or more in 90 days |
| 4.34 | 90 days | 11.75 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lumos Pharma to move over $ 11.75 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Lumos Pharma probability density function shows the probability of Lumos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lumos Pharma price to stay between its current price of $ 4.34 and $ 11.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.43 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Lumos Pharma has a beta of -0.32. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Lumos Pharma are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Lumos Pharma is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Lumos Pharma has an alpha of 0.3242, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lumos Pharma Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lumos Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumos Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lumos Pharma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lumos Pharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lumos Pharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lumos Pharma, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lumos Pharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Lumos Pharma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lumos Pharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lumos Pharma can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Lumos Pharma had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.05 M. Net Loss for the year was (34.03 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.52 M. | |
| Lumos Pharma currently holds about 79.51 M in cash with (31.09 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.49, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Lumos Pharma has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Roughly 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Zoth Lota S. of 367 shares of Lumos Pharma subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Lumos Pharma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lumos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lumos Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lumos Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 36.1 M |
Lumos Pharma Technical Analysis
Lumos Pharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lumos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lumos Pharma. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lumos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lumos Pharma Predictive Forecast Models
Lumos Pharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lumos Pharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lumos Pharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lumos Pharma
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lumos Pharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lumos Pharma help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Lumos Pharma had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.05 M. Net Loss for the year was (34.03 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.52 M. | |
| Lumos Pharma currently holds about 79.51 M in cash with (31.09 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.49, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Lumos Pharma has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Roughly 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Zoth Lota S. of 367 shares of Lumos Pharma subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Lumos Pharma Backtesting, Lumos Pharma Valuation, Lumos Pharma Correlation, Lumos Pharma Hype Analysis, Lumos Pharma Volatility, Lumos Pharma History as well as Lumos Pharma Performance. To learn how to invest in Lumos Stock, please use our How to Invest in Lumos Pharma guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lumos Pharma. If investors know Lumos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lumos Pharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (4.28) | Revenue Per Share 0.27 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 102.714 | Return On Assets (0.70) | Return On Equity (1.73) |
The market value of Lumos Pharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lumos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lumos Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lumos Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lumos Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lumos Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lumos Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lumos Pharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lumos Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.