Maple Leaf (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.7
| M1L Stock | 14.10 0.20 1.40% |
Maple |
Maple Leaf Target Price Odds to finish over 14.7
The tendency of Maple Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 14.70 or more in 90 days |
| 14.10 | 90 days | 14.70 | about 32.31 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Maple Leaf to move over 14.70 or more in 90 days from now is about 32.31 (This Maple Leaf Foods probability density function shows the probability of Maple Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Maple Leaf Foods price to stay between its current price of 14.10 and 14.70 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Maple Leaf Foods has a beta of -0.0203. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Maple Leaf are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Maple Leaf Foods is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Maple Leaf Foods has an alpha of 0.0065, implying that it can generate a 0.006498 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Maple Leaf Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Maple Leaf
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Maple Leaf Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Maple Leaf's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Maple Leaf Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Maple Leaf is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Maple Leaf's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Maple Leaf Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Maple Leaf within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Maple Leaf Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Maple Leaf for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Maple Leaf Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Maple Leaf Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Maple Leaf Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Maple Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Maple Leaf's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Maple Leaf's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 123.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 89.1 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 5.2 M |
Maple Leaf Technical Analysis
Maple Leaf's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Maple Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Maple Leaf Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Maple Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Maple Leaf Predictive Forecast Models
Maple Leaf's time-series forecasting models is one of many Maple Leaf's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Maple Leaf's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Maple Leaf Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about Maple Leaf for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Maple Leaf Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Maple Leaf Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for Maple Stock Analysis
When running Maple Leaf's price analysis, check to measure Maple Leaf's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Maple Leaf is operating at the current time. Most of Maple Leaf's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Maple Leaf's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Maple Leaf's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Maple Leaf to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.