Marvell Technology (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 50.54
| M2RV34 Stock | 54.20 0.75 1.40% |
Marvell |
Marvell Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 50.54
The tendency of Marvell Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 50.54 or more in 90 days |
| 54.20 | 90 days | 50.54 | about 89.9 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marvell Technology to drop to 50.54 or more in 90 days from now is about 89.9 (This Marvell Technology probability density function shows the probability of Marvell Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marvell Technology price to stay between 50.54 and its current price of 54.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.68 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Marvell Technology has a beta of 0.12. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Marvell Technology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Marvell Technology will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Marvell Technology has an alpha of 0.5347, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Marvell Technology Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Marvell Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marvell Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marvell Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marvell Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marvell Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Marvell Technology.Marvell Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marvell Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marvell Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marvell Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marvell Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.53 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Marvell Technology Technical Analysis
Marvell Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marvell Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marvell Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marvell Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Marvell Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Marvell Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Marvell Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Marvell Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Marvell Technology in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Marvell Technology's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Marvell Technology options trading.