Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.68
| MACKDelisted Stock | USD 11.96 0.12 1.01% |
Merrimack |
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 12.68
The tendency of Merrimack Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 12.68 after 90 days |
| 11.96 | 90 days | 12.68 | about 83.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merrimack Pharmaceuticals to stay under $ 12.68 after 90 days from now is about 83.89 (This Merrimack Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Merrimack Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merrimack Pharmaceuticals price to stay between its current price of $ 11.96 and $ 12.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.61 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Merrimack Pharmaceuticals has a beta of -0.0161. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Merrimack Pharmaceuticals are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Merrimack Pharmaceuticals is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Merrimack Pharmaceuticals has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Merrimack Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merrimack Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merrimack Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merrimack Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merrimack Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merrimack Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Merrimack Pharmaceuticals is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Merrimack Pharmaceuticals has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (1.18 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (9.1 M). | |
| Merrimack Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 13.36 M in cash with (1.52 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.0. | |
| Roughly 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merrimack Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.9 M |
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merrimack Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merrimack Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merrimack Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Merrimack Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Merrimack Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merrimack Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Merrimack Pharmaceuticals is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Merrimack Pharmaceuticals has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (1.18 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (9.1 M). | |
| Merrimack Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 13.36 M in cash with (1.52 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.0. | |
| Roughly 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Other Consideration for investing in Merrimack Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Merrimack Pharmaceuticals check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Merrimack Pharmaceuticals' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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