Mawer Global Equity Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 48.16
| MAW120 Fund | 49.44 0.07 0.14% |
Mawer |
Mawer Global Target Price Odds to finish over 48.16
The tendency of Mawer Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 48.16 in 90 days |
| 49.44 | 90 days | 48.16 | about 66.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mawer Global to stay above 48.16 in 90 days from now is about 66.81 (This Mawer Global Equity probability density function shows the probability of Mawer Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mawer Global Equity price to stay between 48.16 and its current price of 49.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mawer Global has a beta of 0.0774. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mawer Global average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mawer Global Equity will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mawer Global Equity has an alpha of 0.0074, implying that it can generate a 0.007404 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mawer Global Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Mawer Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mawer Global Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mawer Global. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mawer Global's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mawer Global's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mawer Global Equity.Mawer Global Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mawer Global is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mawer Global's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mawer Global Equity, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mawer Global within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Mawer Global Technical Analysis
Mawer Global's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mawer Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mawer Global Equity. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mawer Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mawer Global Predictive Forecast Models
Mawer Global's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mawer Global's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mawer Global's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mawer Global in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mawer Global's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mawer Global options trading.
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