Mainstay Balanced Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 31.80
| MBACX Fund | USD 32.16 0.14 0.44% |
Mainstay |
Mainstay Balanced Target Price Odds to finish below 31.80
The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 31.80 or more in 90 days |
| 32.16 | 90 days | 31.80 | about 77.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Balanced to drop to $ 31.80 or more in 90 days from now is about 77.79 (This Mainstay Balanced Fund probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mainstay Balanced price to stay between $ 31.80 and its current price of $32.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.29 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Balanced has a beta of 0.51. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mainstay Balanced average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mainstay Balanced Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mainstay Balanced Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mainstay Balanced Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mainstay Balanced
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mainstay Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mainstay Balanced Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Balanced is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Balanced's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Balanced Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Balanced within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Mainstay Balanced Technical Analysis
Mainstay Balanced's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Balanced Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mainstay Balanced Predictive Forecast Models
Mainstay Balanced's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Balanced's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Balanced's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mainstay Balanced in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mainstay Balanced's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mainstay Balanced options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund
Mainstay Balanced financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Balanced security.
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