McDonalds (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4428.63

MCD Stock  MXN 5,968  7.90  0.13%   
McDonalds' future price is the expected price of McDonalds instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of McDonalds performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out McDonalds Backtesting, McDonalds Valuation, McDonalds Correlation, McDonalds Hype Analysis, McDonalds Volatility, McDonalds History as well as McDonalds Performance.
For more information on how to buy McDonalds Stock please use our How to Invest in McDonalds guide.
  
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McDonalds Target Price Odds to finish over 4428.63

The tendency of McDonalds Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  4,429  in 90 days
 5,968 90 days 4,429 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of McDonalds to stay above  4,429  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This McDonalds probability density function shows the probability of McDonalds Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of McDonalds price to stay between  4,429  and its current price of 5967.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.52 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon McDonalds has a beta of 0.3. This indicates as returns on the market go up, McDonalds average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding McDonalds will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally McDonalds has an alpha of 0.0551, implying that it can generate a 0.0551 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   McDonalds Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for McDonalds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as McDonalds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5,9665,9685,969
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5,9415,9436,565
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5,9625,9645,965
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5,8835,9866,088
Details

McDonalds Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. McDonalds is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the McDonalds' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold McDonalds, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of McDonalds within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.06
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.30
σ
Overall volatility
173.11
Ir
Information ratio -0.01

McDonalds Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of McDonalds for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for McDonalds can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

McDonalds Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of McDonalds Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential McDonalds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. McDonalds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding732.4 M

McDonalds Technical Analysis

McDonalds' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. McDonalds Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of McDonalds. In general, you should focus on analyzing McDonalds Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

McDonalds Predictive Forecast Models

McDonalds' time-series forecasting models is one of many McDonalds' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary McDonalds' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about McDonalds

Checking the ongoing alerts about McDonalds for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for McDonalds help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Additional Tools for McDonalds Stock Analysis

When running McDonalds' price analysis, check to measure McDonalds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy McDonalds is operating at the current time. Most of McDonalds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of McDonalds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move McDonalds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of McDonalds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.