Mercury General Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 67.41
| MCY Stock | USD 78.96 0.11 0.14% |
Mercury |
Mercury General Target Price Odds to finish below 67.41
The tendency of Mercury Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 67.41 or more in 90 days |
| 78.96 | 90 days | 67.41 | about 53.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mercury General to drop to $ 67.41 or more in 90 days from now is about 53.18 (This Mercury General probability density function shows the probability of Mercury Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mercury General price to stay between $ 67.41 and its current price of $78.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.87 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.6 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mercury General will likely underperform. Additionally Mercury General has an alpha of 0.1156, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mercury General Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Mercury General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercury General. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercury General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercury General Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mercury General is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mercury General's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mercury General, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mercury General within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.60 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Mercury General Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mercury General for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mercury General can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mercury General has 587.96 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.24, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Mercury General has a current ratio of 0.68, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Mercury to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Mercury General has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 52.0% of Mercury General outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SYMBOTIC INVESTIGATION ALERT by Former Louisiana Attorney General Kahn Swick Foti, LLC ... |
Mercury General Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mercury Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mercury General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercury General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 729.4 M |
Mercury General Technical Analysis
Mercury General's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mercury Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mercury General. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mercury Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mercury General Predictive Forecast Models
Mercury General's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mercury General's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mercury General's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mercury General
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mercury General for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mercury General help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mercury General has 587.96 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.24, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Mercury General has a current ratio of 0.68, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Mercury to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Mercury General has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 52.0% of Mercury General outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: SYMBOTIC INVESTIGATION ALERT by Former Louisiana Attorney General Kahn Swick Foti, LLC ... |
Additional Tools for Mercury Stock Analysis
When running Mercury General's price analysis, check to measure Mercury General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercury General is operating at the current time. Most of Mercury General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercury General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercury General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercury General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.