MDC Holdings Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.77
| MDCDelisted Stock | USD 47.05 0.59 1.27% |
MDC |
MDC Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 38.77
The tendency of MDC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 38.77 or more in 90 days |
| 47.05 | 90 days | 38.77 | about 6.06 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MDC Holdings to drop to $ 38.77 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.06 (This MDC Holdings probability density function shows the probability of MDC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MDC Holdings price to stay between $ 38.77 and its current price of $47.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.37 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon MDC Holdings has a beta of -0.35. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding MDC Holdings are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, MDC Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MDC Holdings has an alpha of 0.3366, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MDC Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MDC Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MDC Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MDC Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MDC Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MDC Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MDC Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MDC Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MDC Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
MDC Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MDC Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MDC Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MDC Holdings is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| MDC Holdings has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from huffpost.com: Pilot Who Flew Hundreds Of Shelter Animals To Safe Homes Dies In Plane Crash |
MDC Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MDC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MDC Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MDC Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
MDC Holdings Technical Analysis
MDC Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MDC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MDC Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing MDC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MDC Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
MDC Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many MDC Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MDC Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MDC Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about MDC Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MDC Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MDC Holdings is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| MDC Holdings has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from huffpost.com: Pilot Who Flew Hundreds Of Shelter Animals To Safe Homes Dies In Plane Crash |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Other Consideration for investing in MDC Stock
If you are still planning to invest in MDC Holdings check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the MDC Holdings' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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