Mondelez International (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 169.04
| MDLZ34 Stock | BRL 192.29 4.04 2.15% |
Mondelez |
Mondelez International Target Price Odds to finish below 169.04
The tendency of Mondelez Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 169.04 or more in 90 days |
| 192.29 | 90 days | 169.04 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mondelez International to drop to R$ 169.04 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mondelez International probability density function shows the probability of Mondelez Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mondelez International price to stay between R$ 169.04 and its current price of R$192.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.76 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mondelez International has a beta of -0.34. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Mondelez International are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Mondelez International is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Mondelez International has an alpha of 0.0196, implying that it can generate a 0.0196 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mondelez International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mondelez International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mondelez International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mondelez International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mondelez International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mondelez International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mondelez International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mondelez International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Mondelez International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mondelez International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mondelez International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mondelez International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mondelez International has accumulated R$20.05 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Mondelez International has accumulated 20.05 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 78.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Mondelez International has a current ratio of 0.47, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Mondelez International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Mondelez International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Mondelez International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Mondelez to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Mondelez International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Mondelez International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mondelez Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mondelez International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mondelez International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B |
Mondelez International Technical Analysis
Mondelez International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mondelez Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mondelez International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mondelez Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mondelez International Predictive Forecast Models
Mondelez International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mondelez International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mondelez International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mondelez International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mondelez International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mondelez International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mondelez International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mondelez International has accumulated R$20.05 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Mondelez International has accumulated 20.05 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 78.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Mondelez International has a current ratio of 0.47, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Mondelez International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Mondelez International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Mondelez International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Mondelez to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Mondelez International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Mondelez Stock
When determining whether Mondelez International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Mondelez International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mondelez International Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mondelez International Stock:Check out Mondelez International Backtesting, Mondelez International Valuation, Mondelez International Correlation, Mondelez International Hype Analysis, Mondelez International Volatility, Mondelez International History as well as Mondelez International Performance. For information on how to trade Mondelez Stock refer to our How to Trade Mondelez Stock guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.