Modern Internasional (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.88
| MDRN Stock | IDR 6.00 1.00 20.00% |
Modern |
Modern Internasional Target Price Odds to finish over 5.88
The tendency of Modern Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 5.88 in 90 days |
| 6.00 | 90 days | 5.88 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Modern Internasional to stay above 5.88 in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Modern Internasional Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Modern Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Modern Internasional Tbk price to stay between 5.88 and its current price of 6.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Modern Internasional Tbk has a beta of -0.33. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Modern Internasional are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Modern Internasional Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Modern Internasional Tbk has an alpha of 0.1606, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Modern Internasional Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Modern Internasional
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Modern Internasional Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Modern Internasional Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Modern Internasional is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Modern Internasional's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Modern Internasional Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Modern Internasional within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.0008 |
Modern Internasional Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Modern Internasional for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Modern Internasional Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Modern Internasional generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Modern Internasional has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Modern Internasional Tbk has accumulated 291.47 B in total debt. Modern Internasional Tbk has a current ratio of 0.21, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Modern Internasional until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Modern Internasional's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Modern Internasional Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Modern to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Modern Internasional's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Modern Internasional Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Modern Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Modern Internasional's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Modern Internasional's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.3 B |
Modern Internasional Technical Analysis
Modern Internasional's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Modern Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Modern Internasional Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Modern Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Modern Internasional Predictive Forecast Models
Modern Internasional's time-series forecasting models is one of many Modern Internasional's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Modern Internasional's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Modern Internasional Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Modern Internasional for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Modern Internasional Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Modern Internasional generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Modern Internasional has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Modern Internasional Tbk has accumulated 291.47 B in total debt. Modern Internasional Tbk has a current ratio of 0.21, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Modern Internasional until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Modern Internasional's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Modern Internasional Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Modern to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Modern Internasional's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Modern Stock
Modern Internasional financial ratios help investors to determine whether Modern Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Modern with respect to the benefits of owning Modern Internasional security.