METHODE ELECTRONICS (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.38
| ME5A Stock | EUR 9.75 0.95 10.80% |
METHODE |
METHODE ELECTRONICS Target Price Odds to finish below 9.38
The tendency of METHODE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 9.38 or more in 90 days |
| 9.75 | 90 days | 9.38 | about 57.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of METHODE ELECTRONICS to drop to € 9.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 57.6 (This METHODE ELECTRONICS probability density function shows the probability of METHODE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of METHODE ELECTRONICS price to stay between € 9.38 and its current price of €9.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.11 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.62 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, METHODE ELECTRONICS will likely underperform. Additionally METHODE ELECTRONICS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. METHODE ELECTRONICS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for METHODE ELECTRONICS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as METHODE ELECTRONICS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.METHODE ELECTRONICS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. METHODE ELECTRONICS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the METHODE ELECTRONICS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold METHODE ELECTRONICS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of METHODE ELECTRONICS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
METHODE ELECTRONICS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of METHODE ELECTRONICS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for METHODE ELECTRONICS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| METHODE ELECTRONICS had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days |
METHODE ELECTRONICS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of METHODE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential METHODE ELECTRONICS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. METHODE ELECTRONICS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 20.4 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 13 M |
METHODE ELECTRONICS Technical Analysis
METHODE ELECTRONICS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. METHODE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of METHODE ELECTRONICS. In general, you should focus on analyzing METHODE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
METHODE ELECTRONICS Predictive Forecast Models
METHODE ELECTRONICS's time-series forecasting models is one of many METHODE ELECTRONICS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary METHODE ELECTRONICS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about METHODE ELECTRONICS
Checking the ongoing alerts about METHODE ELECTRONICS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for METHODE ELECTRONICS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| METHODE ELECTRONICS had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for METHODE Stock Analysis
When running METHODE ELECTRONICS's price analysis, check to measure METHODE ELECTRONICS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy METHODE ELECTRONICS is operating at the current time. Most of METHODE ELECTRONICS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of METHODE ELECTRONICS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move METHODE ELECTRONICS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of METHODE ELECTRONICS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.