Meezan Bank (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 235.74
| MEBL Stock | 257.44 22.40 9.53% |
Meezan |
Meezan Bank Target Price Odds to finish below 235.74
The tendency of Meezan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 235.74 or more in 90 days |
| 257.44 | 90 days | 235.74 | about 82.66 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Meezan Bank to drop to 235.74 or more in 90 days from now is about 82.66 (This Meezan Bank probability density function shows the probability of Meezan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Meezan Bank price to stay between 235.74 and its current price of 257.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.12 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Meezan Bank has a beta of 0.19. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Meezan Bank average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Meezan Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Meezan Bank has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Meezan Bank Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Meezan Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Meezan Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Meezan Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Meezan Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Meezan Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Meezan Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Meezan Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Meezan Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Meezan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Meezan Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Meezan Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 9.5 B |
Meezan Bank Technical Analysis
Meezan Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Meezan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Meezan Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Meezan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Meezan Bank Predictive Forecast Models
Meezan Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Meezan Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Meezan Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Meezan Bank in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Meezan Bank's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Meezan Bank options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Meezan Stock
Meezan Bank financial ratios help investors to determine whether Meezan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Meezan with respect to the benefits of owning Meezan Bank security.