Medco Energi (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1196.5
| MEDC Stock | IDR 1,045 25.00 2.34% |
Medco |
Medco Energi Target Price Odds to finish below 1196.5
The tendency of Medco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 1,196 after 90 days |
| 1,045 | 90 days | 1,196 | about 35.37 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Medco Energi to stay under 1,196 after 90 days from now is about 35.37 (This Medco Energi Internasional probability density function shows the probability of Medco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Medco Energi Interna price to stay between its current price of 1,045 and 1,196 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.77 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Medco Energi Internasional has a beta of -0.0696. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Medco Energi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Medco Energi Internasional is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Medco Energi Internasional has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Medco Energi Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Medco Energi
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medco Energi Interna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Medco Energi Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Medco Energi is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Medco Energi's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Medco Energi Internasional, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Medco Energi within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 97.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Medco Energi Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Medco Energi for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Medco Energi Interna can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Medco Energi Interna generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Medco Energi Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Medco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Medco Energi's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Medco Energi's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 542.1 M |
Medco Energi Technical Analysis
Medco Energi's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Medco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Medco Energi Internasional. In general, you should focus on analyzing Medco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Medco Energi Predictive Forecast Models
Medco Energi's time-series forecasting models is one of many Medco Energi's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Medco Energi's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Medco Energi Interna
Checking the ongoing alerts about Medco Energi for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Medco Energi Interna help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Medco Energi Interna generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Medco Stock
Medco Energi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Medco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Medco with respect to the benefits of owning Medco Energi security.