Mercer International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.3
| MERC Stock | USD 6.17 0.04 0.64% |
Mercer |
Mercer International Target Price Odds to finish below 10.3
The tendency of Mercer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 10.30 after 90 days |
| 6.17 | 90 days | 10.30 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mercer International to stay under $ 10.30 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Mercer International probability density function shows the probability of Mercer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mercer International price to stay between its current price of $ 6.17 and $ 10.30 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.8 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.62 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mercer International will likely underperform. Additionally Mercer International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mercer International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mercer International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercer International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mercer International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mercer International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mercer International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mercer International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mercer International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.002 |
Mercer International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mercer International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mercer International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mercer International had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.99 B. Net Loss for the year was (242.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 642.26 M. | |
| Mercer International currently holds about 362.25 M in cash with (69 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.48. | |
| Roughly 56.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 3rd of October 2024 Mercer International paid $ 0.075 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from bnnbloomberg.ca: Europe Awaits Trump Tariff Clash With Its Own New Trade Powers |
Mercer International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mercer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mercer International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercer International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 314 M |
Mercer International Technical Analysis
Mercer International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mercer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mercer International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mercer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mercer International Predictive Forecast Models
Mercer International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mercer International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mercer International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mercer International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mercer International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mercer International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mercer International had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.99 B. Net Loss for the year was (242.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 642.26 M. | |
| Mercer International currently holds about 362.25 M in cash with (69 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.48. | |
| Roughly 56.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 3rd of October 2024 Mercer International paid $ 0.075 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from bnnbloomberg.ca: Europe Awaits Trump Tariff Clash With Its Own New Trade Powers |
Check out Mercer International Backtesting, Mercer International Valuation, Mercer International Correlation, Mercer International Hype Analysis, Mercer International Volatility, Mercer International History as well as Mercer International Performance. For information on how to trade Mercer Stock refer to our How to Trade Mercer Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Paper & Forest Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mercer International. If investors know Mercer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mercer International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.73) | Dividend Share 0.3 | Earnings Share (2.85) | Revenue Per Share 30.369 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.067 |
The market value of Mercer International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mercer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mercer International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mercer International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mercer International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mercer International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mercer International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mercer International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mercer International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.