Midcap Financial Investment Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.73
| MFICL Stock | 25.55 0.21 0.83% |
MidCap |
MidCap Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 25.73
The tendency of MidCap Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 25.73 after 90 days |
| 25.55 | 90 days | 25.73 | about 89.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MidCap Financial to stay under 25.73 after 90 days from now is about 89.25 (This MidCap Financial Investment probability density function shows the probability of MidCap Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MidCap Financial Inv price to stay between its current price of 25.55 and 25.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.07 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon MidCap Financial has a beta of 0.0347. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MidCap Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MidCap Financial Investment will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MidCap Financial Investment has an alpha of 0.018, implying that it can generate a 0.018 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MidCap Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MidCap Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MidCap Financial Inv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MidCap Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MidCap Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MidCap Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MidCap Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MidCap Financial Investment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MidCap Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.28 |
MidCap Financial Technical Analysis
MidCap Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MidCap Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MidCap Financial Investment. In general, you should focus on analyzing MidCap Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MidCap Financial Predictive Forecast Models
MidCap Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many MidCap Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MidCap Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MidCap Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, MidCap Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from MidCap Financial options trading.
Check out MidCap Financial Backtesting, MidCap Financial Valuation, MidCap Financial Correlation, MidCap Financial Hype Analysis, MidCap Financial Volatility, MidCap Financial History as well as MidCap Financial Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Specialized Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MidCap Financial. If investors know MidCap will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MidCap Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.859 | Revenue Per Share 4.141 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.158 |
The market value of MidCap Financial Inv is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MidCap that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MidCap Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MidCap Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MidCap Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MidCap Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MidCap Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MidCap Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MidCap Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.