Mainstay Moderate Growth Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 17.55

MGDBX Fund  USD 16.65  0.05  0.30%   
Mainstay Moderate's future price is the expected price of Mainstay Moderate instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mainstay Moderate Growth performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Mainstay Moderate Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Mainstay Moderate Correlation, Mainstay Moderate Hype Analysis, Mainstay Moderate Volatility, Mainstay Moderate History as well as Mainstay Moderate Performance.
  
Please specify Mainstay Moderate's target price for which you would like Mainstay Moderate odds to be computed.

Mainstay Moderate Target Price Odds to finish over 17.55

The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 17.55  or more in 90 days
 16.65 90 days 17.55 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Moderate to move over $ 17.55  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mainstay Moderate Growth probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mainstay Moderate Growth price to stay between its current price of $ 16.65  and $ 17.55  at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.89 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Moderate has a beta of 0.69. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mainstay Moderate average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mainstay Moderate Growth will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mainstay Moderate Growth has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Mainstay Moderate Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mainstay Moderate

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Moderate Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.0416.6017.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.9016.4617.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mainstay Moderate. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mainstay Moderate's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mainstay Moderate's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mainstay Moderate Growth.

Mainstay Moderate Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Moderate is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Moderate's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Moderate Growth, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Moderate within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.69
σ
Overall volatility
0.26
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Mainstay Moderate Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mainstay Moderate for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mainstay Moderate Growth can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 7.15% of its assets in cash

Mainstay Moderate Technical Analysis

Mainstay Moderate's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Moderate Growth. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mainstay Moderate Predictive Forecast Models

Mainstay Moderate's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Moderate's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Moderate's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mainstay Moderate Growth

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mainstay Moderate for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mainstay Moderate Growth help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 7.15% of its assets in cash

Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund

Mainstay Moderate financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Moderate security.
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