Mainstay Mackay Infrastructure Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 7.62
| MGVDX Fund | USD 7.62 0.03 0.40% |
Mainstay |
Mainstay Mackay Target Price Odds to finish below 7.62
The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 7.62 | 90 days | 7.62 | about 44.5 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Mackay to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 44.5 (This Mainstay Mackay Infrastructure probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Mackay Infrastructure has a beta of -0.0981. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Mainstay Mackay are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Mainstay Mackay Infrastructure is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Mainstay Mackay Infrastructure has an alpha of 0.001, implying that it can generate a 9.77E-4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mainstay Mackay Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mainstay Mackay
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Mackay Infr. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mainstay Mackay's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mainstay Mackay Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Mackay is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Mackay's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Mackay Infrastructure, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Mackay within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.001 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.46 |
Mainstay Mackay Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mainstay Mackay for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mainstay Mackay Infr can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mainstay Mackay Infr generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Mainstay Mackay Infr maintains about 14.58% of its assets in cash |
Mainstay Mackay Technical Analysis
Mainstay Mackay's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Mackay Infrastructure. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mainstay Mackay Predictive Forecast Models
Mainstay Mackay's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Mackay's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Mackay's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mainstay Mackay Infr
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mainstay Mackay for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mainstay Mackay Infr help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mainstay Mackay Infr generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Mainstay Mackay Infr maintains about 14.58% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund
Mainstay Mackay financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Mackay security.
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| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated |