Mainstay Government Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 6.66
| MGVNX Fund | USD 7.54 0.02 0.26% |
Mainstay |
Mainstay Government Target Price Odds to finish below 6.66
The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 6.66 or more in 90 days |
| 7.54 | 90 days | 6.66 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Government to drop to $ 6.66 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mainstay Government Fund probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mainstay Government price to stay between $ 6.66 and its current price of $7.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.46 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Government Fund has a beta of -0.0573. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Mainstay Government are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Mainstay Government Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Mainstay Government Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mainstay Government Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mainstay Government
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mainstay Government Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Government is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Government's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Government Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Government within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.5 |
Mainstay Government Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mainstay Government for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mainstay Government can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mainstay Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Mainstay Government maintains about 5.05% of its assets in cash |
Mainstay Government Technical Analysis
Mainstay Government's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Government Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mainstay Government Predictive Forecast Models
Mainstay Government's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Government's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Government's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mainstay Government
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mainstay Government for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mainstay Government help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mainstay Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Mainstay Government maintains about 5.05% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund
Mainstay Government financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Government security.
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