Merck Kommanditgesellschaft Auf Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 170.52
| MKGAF Stock | USD 149.90 6.15 4.28% |
MERCK |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Target Price Odds to finish below 170.52
The tendency of MERCK Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 170.52 after 90 days |
| 149.90 | 90 days | 170.52 | about 42.31 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MERCK Kommanditgesells to stay under $ 170.52 after 90 days from now is about 42.31 (This MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf probability density function shows the probability of MERCK Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MERCK Kommanditgesells price to stay between its current price of $ 149.90 and $ 170.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.36 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon MERCK Kommanditgesells has a beta of 0.36. This indicates as returns on the market go up, MERCK Kommanditgesells average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MERCK Kommanditgesells Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MERCK Kommanditgesells
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MERCK Kommanditgesells. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MERCK Kommanditgesells Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MERCK Kommanditgesells is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MERCK Kommanditgesells' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MERCK Kommanditgesells within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 14.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MERCK Kommanditgesells for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MERCK Kommanditgesells can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MERCK Kommanditgesells generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MERCK Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MERCK Kommanditgesells' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MERCK Kommanditgesells' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 434.8 M |
MERCK Kommanditgesells Technical Analysis
MERCK Kommanditgesells' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MERCK Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MERCK Kommanditgesellschaft auf. In general, you should focus on analyzing MERCK Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MERCK Kommanditgesells Predictive Forecast Models
MERCK Kommanditgesells' time-series forecasting models is one of many MERCK Kommanditgesells' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MERCK Kommanditgesells' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MERCK Kommanditgesells
Checking the ongoing alerts about MERCK Kommanditgesells for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MERCK Kommanditgesells help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MERCK Kommanditgesells generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in MERCK Pink Sheet
MERCK Kommanditgesells financial ratios help investors to determine whether MERCK Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MERCK with respect to the benefits of owning MERCK Kommanditgesells security.