Modine Manufacturing (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 118.05
| MMF Stock | EUR 121.70 1.15 0.94% |
Modine |
Modine Manufacturing Target Price Odds to finish below 118.05
The tendency of Modine Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 118.05 or more in 90 days |
| 121.70 | 90 days | 118.05 | about 48.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Modine Manufacturing to drop to € 118.05 or more in 90 days from now is about 48.61 (This Modine Manufacturing probability density function shows the probability of Modine Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Modine Manufacturing price to stay between € 118.05 and its current price of €121.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.17 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.43 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Modine Manufacturing will likely underperform. Additionally Modine Manufacturing has an alpha of 0.3822, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Modine Manufacturing Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Modine Manufacturing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Modine Manufacturing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Modine Manufacturing Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Modine Manufacturing is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Modine Manufacturing's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Modine Manufacturing, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Modine Manufacturing within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Modine Manufacturing Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Modine Manufacturing for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Modine Manufacturing can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Modine Manufacturing had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Modine Manufacturing has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Modine Manufacturing Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Modine Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Modine Manufacturing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Modine Manufacturing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52 M |
Modine Manufacturing Technical Analysis
Modine Manufacturing's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Modine Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Modine Manufacturing. In general, you should focus on analyzing Modine Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Modine Manufacturing Predictive Forecast Models
Modine Manufacturing's time-series forecasting models is one of many Modine Manufacturing's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Modine Manufacturing's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Modine Manufacturing
Checking the ongoing alerts about Modine Manufacturing for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Modine Manufacturing help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Modine Manufacturing had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Modine Manufacturing has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Modine Stock
When determining whether Modine Manufacturing is a strong investment it is important to analyze Modine Manufacturing's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Modine Manufacturing's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Modine Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Modine Manufacturing Backtesting, Modine Manufacturing Valuation, Modine Manufacturing Correlation, Modine Manufacturing Hype Analysis, Modine Manufacturing Volatility, Modine Manufacturing History as well as Modine Manufacturing Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Modine Stock please use our How to Invest in Modine Manufacturing guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.