Manulife Global Equity Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 51.78
| MMF4606 Fund | 51.83 0.07 0.14% |
Manulife |
Manulife Global Target Price Odds to finish below 51.78
The tendency of Manulife Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 51.78 or more in 90 days |
| 51.83 | 90 days | 51.78 | about 38.5 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Manulife Global to drop to 51.78 or more in 90 days from now is about 38.5 (This Manulife Global Equity probability density function shows the probability of Manulife Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Manulife Global Equity price to stay between 51.78 and its current price of 51.83 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Manulife Global has a beta of 0.0579. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Manulife Global average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Manulife Global Equity will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Manulife Global Equity has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Manulife Global Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Manulife Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manulife Global Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Manulife Global. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Manulife Global's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Manulife Global's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Manulife Global Equity.Manulife Global Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Manulife Global is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Manulife Global's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Manulife Global Equity, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Manulife Global within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
Manulife Global Technical Analysis
Manulife Global's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Manulife Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Manulife Global Equity. In general, you should focus on analyzing Manulife Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Manulife Global Predictive Forecast Models
Manulife Global's time-series forecasting models is one of many Manulife Global's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Manulife Global's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Manulife Global in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Manulife Global's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Manulife Global options trading.
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