Mainstay Moderate Allocation Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 15.25
| MMRDX Fund | USD 14.79 0.07 0.48% |
Mainstay |
Mainstay Moderate Target Price Odds to finish over 15.25
The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 15.25 or more in 90 days |
| 14.79 | 90 days | 15.25 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Moderate to move over $ 15.25 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mainstay Moderate Allocation probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mainstay Moderate price to stay between its current price of $ 14.79 and $ 15.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.91 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Moderate has a beta of 0.51. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mainstay Moderate average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mainstay Moderate Allocation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mainstay Moderate Allocation has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mainstay Moderate Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mainstay Moderate
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Moderate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mainstay Moderate's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mainstay Moderate Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Moderate is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Moderate's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Moderate Allocation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Moderate within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Mainstay Moderate Technical Analysis
Mainstay Moderate's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Moderate Allocation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mainstay Moderate Predictive Forecast Models
Mainstay Moderate's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Moderate's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Moderate's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mainstay Moderate in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mainstay Moderate's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mainstay Moderate options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund
Mainstay Moderate financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Moderate security.
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