Modivcare Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.8
| MODV Stock | USD 18.79 0.85 4.74% |
ModivCare |
ModivCare Target Price Odds to finish below 16.8
The tendency of ModivCare Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 16.80 or more in 90 days |
| 18.79 | 90 days | 16.80 | about 43.44 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ModivCare to drop to $ 16.80 or more in 90 days from now is about 43.44 (This ModivCare probability density function shows the probability of ModivCare Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ModivCare price to stay between $ 16.80 and its current price of $18.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.15 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days ModivCare has a beta of 0.22. This indicates as returns on the market go up, ModivCare average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ModivCare will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ModivCare has an alpha of 0.0129, implying that it can generate a 0.0129 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ModivCare Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ModivCare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ModivCare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ModivCare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ModivCare Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ModivCare is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ModivCare's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ModivCare, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ModivCare within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0095 |
ModivCare Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ModivCare for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ModivCare can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ModivCare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ModivCare has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| ModivCare has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| ModivCare currently holds 1.14 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. ModivCare has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about ModivCare's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 2.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (204.46 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 472.32 M. | |
| ModivCare currently holds about 72.7 M in cash with (82.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.14. | |
| ModivCare has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of ModivCare shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thestar.com: Mackenzie Mgbako scores 25 and No. 14 Indiana beats Providence for 7th place at Battle 4 Atlantis |
ModivCare Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ModivCare Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ModivCare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ModivCare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 M |
ModivCare Technical Analysis
ModivCare's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ModivCare Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ModivCare. In general, you should focus on analyzing ModivCare Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ModivCare Predictive Forecast Models
ModivCare's time-series forecasting models is one of many ModivCare's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ModivCare's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ModivCare
Checking the ongoing alerts about ModivCare for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ModivCare help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ModivCare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ModivCare has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| ModivCare has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| ModivCare currently holds 1.14 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. ModivCare has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about ModivCare's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 2.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (204.46 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 472.32 M. | |
| ModivCare currently holds about 72.7 M in cash with (82.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.14. | |
| ModivCare has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of ModivCare shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thestar.com: Mackenzie Mgbako scores 25 and No. 14 Indiana beats Providence for 7th place at Battle 4 Atlantis |
Additional Tools for ModivCare Stock Analysis
When running ModivCare's price analysis, check to measure ModivCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ModivCare is operating at the current time. Most of ModivCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ModivCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ModivCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ModivCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.