Marathon Petroleum (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 189.08
| MPN Stock | 146.88 0.12 0.08% |
Marathon |
Marathon Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish over 189.08
The tendency of Marathon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 189.08 or more in 90 days |
| 146.88 | 90 days | 189.08 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marathon Petroleum to move over 189.08 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Marathon Petroleum probability density function shows the probability of Marathon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marathon Petroleum price to stay between its current price of 146.88 and 189.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.17 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Marathon Petroleum has a beta of 0.89. This indicates Marathon Petroleum market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Marathon Petroleum is expected to follow. Additionally Marathon Petroleum has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Marathon Petroleum Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Marathon Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marathon Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marathon Petroleum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marathon Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marathon Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marathon Petroleum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marathon Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Marathon Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Marathon Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Marathon Petroleum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Marathon Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Marathon Petroleum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marathon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marathon Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marathon Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 579 M |
Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis
Marathon Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marathon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marathon Petroleum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marathon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Marathon Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models
Marathon Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Marathon Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Marathon Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Marathon Petroleum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Marathon Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Marathon Petroleum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Marathon Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Tools for Marathon Stock Analysis
When running Marathon Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.