Megapower Makmur (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 79.11
| MPOW Stock | IDR 84.00 2.00 2.33% |
Megapower |
Megapower Makmur Target Price Odds to finish below 79.11
The tendency of Megapower Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 79.11 or more in 90 days |
| 84.00 | 90 days | 79.11 | about 36.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Megapower Makmur to drop to 79.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 36.85 (This Megapower Makmur TBK probability density function shows the probability of Megapower Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Megapower Makmur TBK price to stay between 79.11 and its current price of 84.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.9 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Megapower Makmur will likely underperform. Additionally Megapower Makmur TBK has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Megapower Makmur Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Megapower Makmur
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Megapower Makmur TBK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Megapower Makmur Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Megapower Makmur is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Megapower Makmur's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Megapower Makmur TBK, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Megapower Makmur within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.90 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Megapower Makmur Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Megapower Makmur for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Megapower Makmur TBK can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Megapower Makmur TBK had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 29.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Megapower Makmur Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Megapower Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Megapower Makmur's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Megapower Makmur's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 817 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.5 B |
Megapower Makmur Technical Analysis
Megapower Makmur's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Megapower Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Megapower Makmur TBK. In general, you should focus on analyzing Megapower Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Megapower Makmur Predictive Forecast Models
Megapower Makmur's time-series forecasting models is one of many Megapower Makmur's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Megapower Makmur's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Megapower Makmur TBK
Checking the ongoing alerts about Megapower Makmur for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Megapower Makmur TBK help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Megapower Makmur TBK had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 29.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Megapower Stock
Megapower Makmur financial ratios help investors to determine whether Megapower Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Megapower with respect to the benefits of owning Megapower Makmur security.