ITALIAN WINE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.6
| MR3 Stock | 22.20 0.10 0.45% |
ITALIAN |
ITALIAN WINE Target Price Odds to finish below 20.6
The tendency of ITALIAN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 20.60 or more in 90 days |
| 22.20 | 90 days | 20.60 | about 13.07 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ITALIAN WINE to drop to 20.60 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.07 (This ITALIAN WINE BRANDS probability density function shows the probability of ITALIAN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ITALIAN WINE BRANDS price to stay between 20.60 and its current price of 22.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.29 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon ITALIAN WINE BRANDS has a beta of -0.68. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ITALIAN WINE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ITALIAN WINE BRANDS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ITALIAN WINE BRANDS has an alpha of 0.2454, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ITALIAN WINE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ITALIAN WINE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ITALIAN WINE BRANDS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ITALIAN WINE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ITALIAN WINE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ITALIAN WINE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ITALIAN WINE BRANDS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ITALIAN WINE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
ITALIAN WINE Technical Analysis
ITALIAN WINE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ITALIAN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ITALIAN WINE BRANDS. In general, you should focus on analyzing ITALIAN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ITALIAN WINE Predictive Forecast Models
ITALIAN WINE's time-series forecasting models is one of many ITALIAN WINE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ITALIAN WINE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ITALIAN WINE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ITALIAN WINE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ITALIAN WINE options trading.
Other Information on Investing in ITALIAN Stock
ITALIAN WINE financial ratios help investors to determine whether ITALIAN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ITALIAN with respect to the benefits of owning ITALIAN WINE security.