Merck (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 145.45
| MRK Stock | EUR 141.25 0.60 0.42% |
Merck |
Merck Target Price Odds to finish below 145.45
The tendency of Merck Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 145.45 after 90 days |
| 141.25 | 90 days | 145.45 | about 11.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merck to stay under € 145.45 after 90 days from now is about 11.18 (This Merck Company probability density function shows the probability of Merck Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merck Company price to stay between its current price of € 141.25 and € 145.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.18 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Merck has a beta of 0.19. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Merck average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merck Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Merck Company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Merck Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Merck
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Merck Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merck is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merck's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merck Company, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merck within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
Merck Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merck for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merck Company can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Merck Company generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Merck Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merck Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merck's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merck's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 434.8 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 181 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 2.4 B |
Merck Technical Analysis
Merck's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merck Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merck Company. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merck Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Merck Predictive Forecast Models
Merck's time-series forecasting models is one of many Merck's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merck's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Merck Company
Checking the ongoing alerts about Merck for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merck Company help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Merck Company generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Merck Stock
When determining whether Merck Company is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Merck Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Merck Company Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Merck Company Stock:Check out Merck Backtesting, Merck Valuation, Merck Correlation, Merck Hype Analysis, Merck Volatility, Merck History as well as Merck Performance. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.