Mersana Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.97
| MRSN Stock | USD 2.19 0.02 0.92% |
Mersana |
Mersana Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish over 1.97
The tendency of Mersana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 1.97 in 90 days |
| 2.19 | 90 days | 1.97 | about 51.42 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mersana Therapeutics to stay above $ 1.97 in 90 days from now is about 51.42 (This Mersana Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Mersana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mersana Therapeutics price to stay between $ 1.97 and its current price of $2.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.76 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 4.08 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mersana Therapeutics will likely underperform. Additionally Mersana Therapeutics has an alpha of 0.2438, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mersana Therapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mersana Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mersana Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mersana Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mersana Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mersana Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mersana Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mersana Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mersana Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 4.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Mersana Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mersana Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mersana Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mersana Therapeutics is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Mersana Therapeutics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Mersana Therapeutics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 36.85 M. Net Loss for the year was (171.67 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (146.8 M). | |
| Mersana Therapeutics currently holds about 225.13 M in cash with (168.88 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.32, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Mersana Therapeutics has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Mersana Therapeutics, Inc. Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Mersana Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mersana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mersana Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mersana Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 116.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 209.1 M |
Mersana Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Mersana Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mersana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mersana Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mersana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mersana Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Mersana Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Mersana Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mersana Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mersana Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mersana Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mersana Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mersana Therapeutics is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Mersana Therapeutics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Mersana Therapeutics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 36.85 M. Net Loss for the year was (171.67 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (146.8 M). | |
| Mersana Therapeutics currently holds about 225.13 M in cash with (168.88 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.32, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Mersana Therapeutics has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Mersana Therapeutics, Inc. Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Check out Mersana Therapeutics Backtesting, Mersana Therapeutics Valuation, Mersana Therapeutics Correlation, Mersana Therapeutics Hype Analysis, Mersana Therapeutics Volatility, Mersana Therapeutics History as well as Mersana Therapeutics Performance. To learn how to invest in Mersana Stock, please use our How to Invest in Mersana Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mersana Therapeutics. If investors know Mersana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mersana Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.60) | Revenue Per Share 0.286 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.637 | Return On Assets (0.26) | Return On Equity (2.13) |
The market value of Mersana Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mersana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mersana Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mersana Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mersana Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mersana Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mersana Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mersana Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mersana Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.