Mfs Total Return Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 20.89
| MSFRX Fund | USD 21.08 0.04 0.19% |
Mfs |
Mfs Total Target Price Odds to finish below 20.89
The tendency of Mfs Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 20.89 or more in 90 days |
| 21.08 | 90 days | 20.89 | about 89.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mfs Total to drop to $ 20.89 or more in 90 days from now is about 89.62 (This Mfs Total Return probability density function shows the probability of Mfs Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mfs Total Return price to stay between $ 20.89 and its current price of $21.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.5 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mfs Total has a beta of 0.45. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mfs Total average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mfs Total Return will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mfs Total Return has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mfs Total Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mfs Total
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mfs Total Return. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mfs Total Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mfs Total is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mfs Total's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mfs Total Return, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mfs Total within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Mfs Total Technical Analysis
Mfs Total's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mfs Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mfs Total Return. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mfs Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mfs Total Predictive Forecast Models
Mfs Total's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mfs Total's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mfs Total's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mfs Total in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mfs Total's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mfs Total options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Mfs Mutual Fund
Mfs Total financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mfs Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mfs with respect to the benefits of owning Mfs Total security.
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