Microsoft Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 416.96
| MSFT Stock | USD 423.46 0.47 0.11% |
Microsoft |
Microsoft Target Price Odds to finish below 416.96
The tendency of Microsoft Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 416.96 or more in 90 days |
| 423.46 | 90 days | 416.96 | about 36.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Microsoft to drop to $ 416.96 or more in 90 days from now is about 36.14 (This Microsoft probability density function shows the probability of Microsoft Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Microsoft price to stay between $ 416.96 and its current price of $423.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.15 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Microsoft has a beta of 0.73. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Microsoft average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Microsoft will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Microsoft has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Microsoft Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Microsoft
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Microsoft Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Microsoft is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Microsoft's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Microsoft, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Microsoft within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.73 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Microsoft Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Microsoft for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Microsoft can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Microsoft has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Microsoft Ignite Highlights Transformative Impact of AI Across Global Industries |
Microsoft Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Microsoft Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Microsoft's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microsoft's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.5 B |
Microsoft Technical Analysis
Microsoft's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Microsoft Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Microsoft. In general, you should focus on analyzing Microsoft Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Microsoft Predictive Forecast Models
Microsoft's time-series forecasting models is one of many Microsoft's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Microsoft's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Microsoft
Checking the ongoing alerts about Microsoft for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Microsoft help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Microsoft has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Microsoft Ignite Highlights Transformative Impact of AI Across Global Industries |
Additional Tools for Microsoft Stock Analysis
When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.