Mainstay Mackay Short Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 9.39
| MSTEX Fund | USD 9.29 0.01 0.11% |
Mainstay |
Mainstay Mackay Target Price Odds to finish over 9.39
The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 9.39 or more in 90 days |
| 9.29 | 90 days | 9.39 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Mackay to move over $ 9.39 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mainstay Mackay Short probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mainstay Mackay Short price to stay between its current price of $ 9.29 and $ 9.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.72 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Mackay has a beta of 0.0275. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mainstay Mackay average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mainstay Mackay Short will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mainstay Mackay Short has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mainstay Mackay Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mainstay Mackay
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Mackay Short. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mainstay Mackay's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mainstay Mackay Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Mackay is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Mackay's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Mackay Short, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Mackay within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0053 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -1.03 |
Mainstay Mackay Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mainstay Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mainstay Mackay's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mainstay Mackay's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Mainstay Mackay Technical Analysis
Mainstay Mackay's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Mackay Short. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mainstay Mackay Predictive Forecast Models
Mainstay Mackay's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Mackay's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Mackay's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mainstay Mackay in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mainstay Mackay's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mainstay Mackay options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund
Mainstay Mackay financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Mackay security.
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