Mannatech Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.12
| MTEX Stock | USD 7.88 0.52 6.19% |
Mannatech |
Mannatech Incorporated Target Price Odds to finish below 8.12
The tendency of Mannatech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 8.12 after 90 days |
| 7.88 | 90 days | 8.12 | about 70.09 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mannatech Incorporated to stay under $ 8.12 after 90 days from now is about 70.09 (This Mannatech Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Mannatech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mannatech Incorporated price to stay between its current price of $ 7.88 and $ 8.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.78 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Mannatech Incorporated has a beta of 0.71. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mannatech Incorporated average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mannatech Incorporated will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mannatech Incorporated has an alpha of 0.091, implying that it can generate a 0.091 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mannatech Incorporated Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Mannatech Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mannatech Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mannatech Incorporated's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mannatech Incorporated Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mannatech Incorporated is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mannatech Incorporated's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mannatech Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mannatech Incorporated within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Mannatech Incorporated Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mannatech Incorporated for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mannatech Incorporated can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mannatech Incorporated had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 131.96 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.24 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 104.15 M. | |
| Mannatech Incorporated currently holds about 20.57 M in cash with (2.37 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.76, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Mannatech Incorporated has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Toth Robert of 1167 shares of Mannatech Incorporated at 8.4 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Mannatech Incorporated Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mannatech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mannatech Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mannatech Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.7 M |
Mannatech Incorporated Technical Analysis
Mannatech Incorporated's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mannatech Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mannatech Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mannatech Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mannatech Incorporated Predictive Forecast Models
Mannatech Incorporated's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mannatech Incorporated's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mannatech Incorporated's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mannatech Incorporated
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mannatech Incorporated for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mannatech Incorporated help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mannatech Incorporated had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 131.96 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.24 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 104.15 M. | |
| Mannatech Incorporated currently holds about 20.57 M in cash with (2.37 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.76, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Mannatech Incorporated has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Toth Robert of 1167 shares of Mannatech Incorporated at 8.4 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for Mannatech Stock Analysis
When running Mannatech Incorporated's price analysis, check to measure Mannatech Incorporated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mannatech Incorporated is operating at the current time. Most of Mannatech Incorporated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mannatech Incorporated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mannatech Incorporated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mannatech Incorporated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.