Mechel OAO Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.25
Mechel OAO's future price is the expected price of Mechel OAO instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mechel OAO performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate.
Please specify Mechel OAO's target price for which you would like Mechel OAO odds to be computed.
Mechel |
Mechel OAO Target Price Odds to finish below 2.25
The tendency of Mechel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 2.25 after 90 days |
| 0.00 | 90 days | 2.25 | about 69.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mechel OAO to stay under $ 2.25 after 90 days from now is about 69.65 (This Mechel OAO probability density function shows the probability of Mechel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mechel OAO price to stay between its current price of $ 0.00 and $ 2.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 66.85 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Mechel OAO has the beta coefficient that is very close to zero. This indicates the returns on DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL and Mechel OAO do not appear to be very sensitive. Additionally It does not look like Mechel OAO's alpha can have any bearing on the current valuation. Mechel OAO Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mechel OAO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mechel OAO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mechel OAO's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mechel OAO Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mechel OAO is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mechel OAO's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mechel OAO, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mechel OAO within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.00 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.00 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.00 |
Mechel OAO Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mechel OAO for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mechel OAO can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mechel OAO is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Mechel OAO has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Mechel OAO has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Mechel OAO has 3.99 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 5.08, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Mechel OAO has a current ratio of 0.31, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Mechel to invest in growth at high rates of return. |
Mechel OAO Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mechel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mechel OAO's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mechel OAO's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 206.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.8 B |
Mechel OAO Technical Analysis
Mechel OAO's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mechel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mechel OAO. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mechel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mechel OAO Predictive Forecast Models
Mechel OAO's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mechel OAO's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mechel OAO's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mechel OAO
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mechel OAO for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mechel OAO help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mechel OAO is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Mechel OAO has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Mechel OAO has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Mechel OAO has 3.99 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 5.08, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Mechel OAO has a current ratio of 0.31, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Mechel to invest in growth at high rates of return. |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Other Consideration for investing in Mechel Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Mechel OAO check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Mechel OAO's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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