Mitsubishi Gas (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.22
| MUG Stock | 17.50 0.20 1.13% |
Mitsubishi |
Mitsubishi Gas Target Price Odds to finish below 18.22
The tendency of Mitsubishi Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 18.22 after 90 days |
| 17.50 | 90 days | 18.22 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mitsubishi Gas to stay under 18.22 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Mitsubishi Gas Chemical probability density function shows the probability of Mitsubishi Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mitsubishi Gas Chemical price to stay between its current price of 17.50 and 18.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.49 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mitsubishi Gas has a beta of 0.5. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mitsubishi Gas average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mitsubishi Gas Chemical will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mitsubishi Gas Chemical has an alpha of 0.026, implying that it can generate a 0.026 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mitsubishi Gas Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Mitsubishi Gas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mitsubishi Gas Chemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mitsubishi Gas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mitsubishi Gas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mitsubishi Gas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mitsubishi Gas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mitsubishi Gas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Mitsubishi Gas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mitsubishi Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mitsubishi Gas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mitsubishi Gas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 208 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 16.6 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 38.9 B |
Mitsubishi Gas Technical Analysis
Mitsubishi Gas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mitsubishi Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mitsubishi Gas Chemical. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mitsubishi Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mitsubishi Gas Predictive Forecast Models
Mitsubishi Gas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Mitsubishi Gas' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mitsubishi Gas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mitsubishi Gas in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mitsubishi Gas' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mitsubishi Gas options trading.
Additional Tools for Mitsubishi Stock Analysis
When running Mitsubishi Gas' price analysis, check to measure Mitsubishi Gas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mitsubishi Gas is operating at the current time. Most of Mitsubishi Gas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mitsubishi Gas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mitsubishi Gas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mitsubishi Gas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.