Murree Brewery (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 671.80
| MUREB Stock | 670.00 3.84 0.57% |
Murree |
Murree Brewery Target Price Odds to finish over 671.80
The tendency of Murree Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 671.80 or more in 90 days |
| 670.00 | 90 days | 671.80 | roughly 2.86 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Murree Brewery to move over 671.80 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.86 (This Murree Brewery probability density function shows the probability of Murree Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Murree Brewery price to stay between its current price of 670.00 and 671.80 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Murree Brewery has a beta of -0.47. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Murree Brewery are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Murree Brewery is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Murree Brewery has an alpha of 0.461, implying that it can generate a 0.46 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Murree Brewery Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Murree Brewery
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Murree Brewery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Murree Brewery. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Murree Brewery's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Murree Brewery's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Murree Brewery.Murree Brewery Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Murree Brewery is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Murree Brewery's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Murree Brewery, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Murree Brewery within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 62.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Murree Brewery Technical Analysis
Murree Brewery's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Murree Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Murree Brewery. In general, you should focus on analyzing Murree Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Murree Brewery Predictive Forecast Models
Murree Brewery's time-series forecasting models is one of many Murree Brewery's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Murree Brewery's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Murree Brewery in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Murree Brewery's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Murree Brewery options trading.