Northern Lights Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 26.94
| MVFG Etf | 27.82 0.04 0.14% |
Northern |
Northern Lights Target Price Odds to finish below 26.94
The tendency of Northern Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 26.94 or more in 90 days |
| 27.82 | 90 days | 26.94 | about 21.1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northern Lights to drop to 26.94 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.1 (This Northern Lights probability density function shows the probability of Northern Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Northern Lights price to stay between 26.94 and its current price of 27.82 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.8 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Northern Lights has a beta of 0.58. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Northern Lights average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Northern Lights will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Northern Lights has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Northern Lights Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Northern Lights
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Lights. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Northern Lights Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northern Lights is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northern Lights' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northern Lights, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northern Lights within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.58 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Northern Lights Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northern Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northern Lights' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Lights' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Northern Lights Technical Analysis
Northern Lights' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northern Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northern Lights. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northern Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Northern Lights Predictive Forecast Models
Northern Lights' time-series forecasting models is one of many Northern Lights' etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Northern Lights' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Northern Lights in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Northern Lights' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Northern Lights options trading.
Check out Northern Lights Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Northern Lights Correlation, Northern Lights Hype Analysis, Northern Lights Volatility, Northern Lights History as well as Northern Lights Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Northern Etf please use our How to Invest in Northern Lights guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
The market value of Northern Lights is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Lights' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Lights' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Lights' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Lights' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Lights' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northern Lights is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Lights' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.