N1WS34 (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 149.87

N1WS34 Stock  BRL 148.95  0.00  0.00%   
N1WS34's future price is the expected price of N1WS34 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of N1WS34 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out N1WS34 Backtesting, N1WS34 Valuation, N1WS34 Correlation, N1WS34 Hype Analysis, N1WS34 Volatility, N1WS34 History as well as N1WS34 Performance.
  
Please specify N1WS34's target price for which you would like N1WS34 odds to be computed.

N1WS34 Target Price Odds to finish below 149.87

The tendency of N1WS34 Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under R$ 149.87  after 90 days
 148.95 90 days 149.87 
about 89.25
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of N1WS34 to stay under R$ 149.87  after 90 days from now is about 89.25 (This N1WS34 probability density function shows the probability of N1WS34 Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of N1WS34 price to stay between its current price of R$ 148.95  and R$ 149.87  at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.77 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon N1WS34 has a beta of 0.0067. This indicates as returns on the market go up, N1WS34 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding N1WS34 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally N1WS34 has an alpha of 0.0098, implying that it can generate a 0.00975 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   N1WS34 Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for N1WS34

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as N1WS34. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
148.43148.95149.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
147.14147.66163.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as N1WS34. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against N1WS34's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, N1WS34's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in N1WS34.

N1WS34 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. N1WS34 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the N1WS34's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold N1WS34, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of N1WS34 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.01
σ
Overall volatility
2.38
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

N1WS34 Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of N1WS34 Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential N1WS34's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. N1WS34's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.20
Float Shares508.69M
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.15%

N1WS34 Technical Analysis

N1WS34's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. N1WS34 Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of N1WS34. In general, you should focus on analyzing N1WS34 Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

N1WS34 Predictive Forecast Models

N1WS34's time-series forecasting models is one of many N1WS34's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary N1WS34's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards N1WS34 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, N1WS34's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from N1WS34 options trading.

Other Information on Investing in N1WS34 Stock

N1WS34 financial ratios help investors to determine whether N1WS34 Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in N1WS34 with respect to the benefits of owning N1WS34 security.