Natco Pharma (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1,324
| NATCOPHARM | 1,337 13.80 1.02% |
Natco |
Natco Pharma Target Price Odds to finish below 1,324
The tendency of Natco Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 1,337 | 90 days | 1,337 | about 12.33 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natco Pharma to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 12.33 (This Natco Pharma Limited probability density function shows the probability of Natco Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Natco Pharma has a beta of 0.38. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Natco Pharma average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Natco Pharma Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Natco Pharma Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Natco Pharma Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Natco Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natco Pharma Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Natco Pharma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natco Pharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natco Pharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natco Pharma Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natco Pharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 81.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Natco Pharma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natco Pharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natco Pharma Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natco Pharma Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natco Pharma Limited is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 51.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: NATCO Pharma Limited Passed Our Checks, And Its About To Pay A 1.50 Dividend - Simply Wall St |
Natco Pharma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natco Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natco Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natco Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 179.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.9 B |
Natco Pharma Technical Analysis
Natco Pharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natco Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natco Pharma Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natco Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natco Pharma Predictive Forecast Models
Natco Pharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many Natco Pharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natco Pharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natco Pharma Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natco Pharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natco Pharma Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natco Pharma Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natco Pharma Limited is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 51.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: NATCO Pharma Limited Passed Our Checks, And Its About To Pay A 1.50 Dividend - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in Natco Stock
Natco Pharma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Natco Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Natco with respect to the benefits of owning Natco Pharma security.