National Foods (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 126.81

NATF Stock   184.51  3.33  1.77%   
National Foods' future price is the expected price of National Foods instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of National Foods performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out National Foods Backtesting, National Foods Valuation, National Foods Correlation, National Foods Hype Analysis, National Foods Volatility, National Foods History as well as National Foods Performance.
  
Please specify National Foods' target price for which you would like National Foods odds to be computed.

National Foods Target Price Odds to finish over 126.81

The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  126.81  in 90 days
 184.51 90 days 126.81 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Foods to stay above  126.81  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This National Foods probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Foods price to stay between  126.81  and its current price of 184.51 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon National Foods has a beta of -0.2. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding National Foods are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, National Foods is likely to outperform the market. Additionally National Foods has an alpha of 0.1685, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   National Foods Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for National Foods

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
182.98184.51186.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
149.98151.51202.96
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
186.17187.70189.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
164.91176.30187.69
Details

National Foods Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.17
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.2
σ
Overall volatility
5.44
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

National Foods Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding233.1 M
Dividends PaidB
Short Long Term Debt5.5 B

National Foods Technical Analysis

National Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

National Foods Predictive Forecast Models

National Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many National Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards National Foods in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, National Foods' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from National Foods options trading.

Other Information on Investing in National Stock

National Foods financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Foods security.