National Bank (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 43.25

NB9 Stock  EUR 44.40  0.20  0.45%   
National Bank's future price is the expected price of National Bank instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of National Bank Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out National Bank Backtesting, National Bank Valuation, National Bank Correlation, National Bank Hype Analysis, National Bank Volatility, National Bank History as well as National Bank Performance.
  
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National Bank Target Price Odds to finish over 43.25

The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above € 43.25  in 90 days
 44.40 90 days 43.25 
about 16.14
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Bank to stay above € 43.25  in 90 days from now is about 16.14 (This National Bank Holdings probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Bank Holdings price to stay between € 43.25  and its current price of €44.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.63 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.77 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, National Bank will likely underperform. Additionally National Bank Holdings has an alpha of 0.0532, implying that it can generate a 0.0532 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   National Bank Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for National Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Bank Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
41.8044.4047.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
40.0242.6245.22
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
41.5144.1146.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
43.6544.3445.02
Details

National Bank Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Bank Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.77
σ
Overall volatility
3.58
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

National Bank Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Bank Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

National Bank Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding37.6 M

National Bank Technical Analysis

National Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Bank Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

National Bank Predictive Forecast Models

National Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about National Bank Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about National Bank for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Bank Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in National Stock

When determining whether National Bank Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of National Bank's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of National Bank Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on National Bank Holdings Stock:
Check out National Bank Backtesting, National Bank Valuation, National Bank Correlation, National Bank Hype Analysis, National Bank Volatility, National Bank History as well as National Bank Performance.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.