National Cinemedia Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.90
| NCMI Stock | USD 6.86 0.06 0.88% |
National |
National CineMedia Target Price Odds to finish over 11.90
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 11.90 or more in 90 days |
| 6.86 | 90 days | 11.90 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National CineMedia to move over $ 11.90 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This National CineMedia probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National CineMedia price to stay between its current price of $ 6.86 and $ 11.90 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.38 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days National CineMedia has a beta of -0.25. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding National CineMedia are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, National CineMedia is likely to outperform the market. Additionally National CineMedia has an alpha of 0.0367, implying that it can generate a 0.0367 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). National CineMedia Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National CineMedia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National CineMedia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National CineMedia Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National CineMedia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National CineMedia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National CineMedia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National CineMedia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
National CineMedia Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National CineMedia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National CineMedia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National CineMedia currently holds 16 M in liabilities. National CineMedia has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about National CineMedia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| National CineMedia currently holds about 73.4 M in cash with (6.7 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.9. | |
| National CineMedia has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: National CineMedia Net Issuance of Preferred Sto - GuruFocus.com |
National CineMedia Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National CineMedia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National CineMedia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 34.6 M |
National CineMedia Technical Analysis
National CineMedia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National CineMedia. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National CineMedia Predictive Forecast Models
National CineMedia's time-series forecasting models is one of many National CineMedia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National CineMedia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National CineMedia
Checking the ongoing alerts about National CineMedia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National CineMedia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National CineMedia currently holds 16 M in liabilities. National CineMedia has a current ratio of 0.5, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about National CineMedia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| National CineMedia currently holds about 73.4 M in cash with (6.7 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.9. | |
| National CineMedia has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: National CineMedia Net Issuance of Preferred Sto - GuruFocus.com |
Check out National CineMedia Backtesting, National CineMedia Valuation, National CineMedia Correlation, National CineMedia Hype Analysis, National CineMedia Volatility, National CineMedia History as well as National CineMedia Performance. For more detail on how to invest in National Stock please use our How to Invest in National CineMedia guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Advertising space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National CineMedia. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National CineMedia listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | Earnings Share (7.34) | Revenue Per Share 2.546 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.526 | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of National CineMedia is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National CineMedia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National CineMedia's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National CineMedia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National CineMedia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National CineMedia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National CineMedia is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National CineMedia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.