NCR PLC (Nigeria) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.05
| NCR Stock | 4.73 0.27 5.40% |
NCR |
NCR PLC Target Price Odds to finish below 0.05
The tendency of NCR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.05 or more in 90 days |
| 4.73 | 90 days | 0.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NCR PLC to drop to 0.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This NCR PLC probability density function shows the probability of NCR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NCR PLC price to stay between 0.05 and its current price of 4.73 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NCR PLC has a beta of -0.33. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NCR PLC are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NCR PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NCR PLC has an alpha of 0.2226, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NCR PLC Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for NCR PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NCR PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NCR PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NCR PLC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NCR PLC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NCR PLC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NCR PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NCR PLC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
NCR PLC Technical Analysis
NCR PLC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NCR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NCR PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing NCR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NCR PLC Predictive Forecast Models
NCR PLC's time-series forecasting models is one of many NCR PLC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NCR PLC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NCR PLC in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NCR PLC's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NCR PLC options trading.
Additional Tools for NCR Stock Analysis
When running NCR PLC's price analysis, check to measure NCR PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NCR PLC is operating at the current time. Most of NCR PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NCR PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NCR PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NCR PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.