Novagold Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.60
| NG Stock | CAD 5.07 0.02 0.40% |
NovaGold |
NovaGold Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 1.60
The tendency of NovaGold Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 1.60 or more in 90 days |
| 5.07 | 90 days | 1.60 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NovaGold Resources to drop to C$ 1.60 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This NovaGold Resources probability density function shows the probability of NovaGold Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NovaGold Resources price to stay between C$ 1.60 and its current price of C$5.07 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.95 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon NovaGold Resources has a beta of -0.0877. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NovaGold Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NovaGold Resources is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NovaGold Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NovaGold Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NovaGold Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NovaGold Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NovaGold Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NovaGold Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NovaGold Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NovaGold Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NovaGold Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NovaGold Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
NovaGold Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NovaGold Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NovaGold Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NovaGold Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NovaGold Resources has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NovaGold Resources has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (46.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| NovaGold Resources has accumulated about 63.88 M in cash with (7.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.38. | |
| Roughly 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: NovaGold Resources Shares Gap Up - Heres What Happened - MarketBeat |
NovaGold Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NovaGold Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NovaGold Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NovaGold Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 334.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 125.7 M |
NovaGold Resources Technical Analysis
NovaGold Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NovaGold Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NovaGold Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing NovaGold Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NovaGold Resources Predictive Forecast Models
NovaGold Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many NovaGold Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NovaGold Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NovaGold Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about NovaGold Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NovaGold Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NovaGold Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NovaGold Resources has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NovaGold Resources has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (46.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| NovaGold Resources has accumulated about 63.88 M in cash with (7.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.38. | |
| Roughly 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: NovaGold Resources Shares Gap Up - Heres What Happened - MarketBeat |
Check out NovaGold Resources Backtesting, NovaGold Resources Valuation, NovaGold Resources Correlation, NovaGold Resources Hype Analysis, NovaGold Resources Volatility, NovaGold Resources History as well as NovaGold Resources Performance. To learn how to invest in NovaGold Stock, please use our How to Invest in NovaGold Resources guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.