Nio Class A Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.67
| NIO Stock | USD 4.38 0.07 1.62% |
Nio |
Nio Target Price Odds to finish below 4.67
The tendency of Nio Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 4.67 after 90 days |
| 4.38 | 90 days | 4.67 | about 21.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nio to stay under $ 4.67 after 90 days from now is about 21.25 (This Nio Class A probability density function shows the probability of Nio Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nio Class A price to stay between its current price of $ 4.38 and $ 4.67 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.17 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Nio has a beta of 0.59. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Nio average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Nio Class A will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Nio Class A has an alpha of 0.1901, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Nio Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Nio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nio Class A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nio Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nio is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nio's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nio Class A, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nio within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Nio Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nio for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nio Class A can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nio Class A had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Nio Class A has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 55.62 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (20.72 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.14 B. | |
| Nio Class A has about 19.89 B in cash with (1.38 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 27.32, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Nio Class A has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: NIO Faces Downgrades from Goldman Sachs and Macquarie Amid Sluggish Production |
Nio Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nio Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.7 B |
Nio Technical Analysis
Nio's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nio Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nio Class A. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nio Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nio Predictive Forecast Models
Nio's time-series forecasting models is one of many Nio's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nio's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nio Class A
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nio for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nio Class A help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nio Class A had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Nio Class A has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 55.62 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (20.72 B) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.14 B. | |
| Nio Class A has about 19.89 B in cash with (1.38 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 27.32, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Nio Class A has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: NIO Faces Downgrades from Goldman Sachs and Macquarie Amid Sluggish Production |
Check out Nio Backtesting, Nio Valuation, Nio Correlation, Nio Hype Analysis, Nio Volatility, Nio History as well as Nio Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Automobile Manufacturers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nio. If investors know Nio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.50) | Revenue Per Share 33.464 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.989 | Return On Assets (0.15) | Return On Equity (1.05) |
The market value of Nio Class A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.