NATION MEDIA (Kenya) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.67
| NMG Stock | 12.90 0.65 4.80% |
NATION |
NATION MEDIA Target Price Odds to finish below 9.67
The tendency of NATION Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 9.67 or more in 90 days |
| 12.90 | 90 days | 9.67 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NATION MEDIA to drop to 9.67 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This NATION MEDIA GROUP probability density function shows the probability of NATION Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NATION MEDIA GROUP price to stay between 9.67 and its current price of 12.9 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NATION MEDIA has a beta of 0.59. This indicates as returns on the market go up, NATION MEDIA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NATION MEDIA GROUP will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NATION MEDIA GROUP has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NATION MEDIA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for NATION MEDIA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NATION MEDIA GROUP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NATION MEDIA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NATION MEDIA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NATION MEDIA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NATION MEDIA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NATION MEDIA GROUP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NATION MEDIA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
NATION MEDIA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NATION MEDIA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NATION MEDIA GROUP can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NATION MEDIA GROUP generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NATION MEDIA GROUP has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
NATION MEDIA Technical Analysis
NATION MEDIA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NATION Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NATION MEDIA GROUP. In general, you should focus on analyzing NATION Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NATION MEDIA Predictive Forecast Models
NATION MEDIA's time-series forecasting models is one of many NATION MEDIA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NATION MEDIA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NATION MEDIA GROUP
Checking the ongoing alerts about NATION MEDIA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NATION MEDIA GROUP help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NATION MEDIA GROUP generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NATION MEDIA GROUP has high historical volatility and very poor performance |