Northrop Grumman Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 501.17
| NOC Stock | USD 489.08 0.65 0.13% |
Northrop |
Northrop Grumman Target Price Odds to finish over 501.17
The tendency of Northrop Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 501.17 or more in 90 days |
| 489.08 | 90 days | 501.17 | about 89.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northrop Grumman to move over $ 501.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 89.36 (This Northrop Grumman probability density function shows the probability of Northrop Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Northrop Grumman price to stay between its current price of $ 489.08 and $ 501.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.88 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Northrop Grumman has a beta of 0.47. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Northrop Grumman average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Northrop Grumman will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Northrop Grumman has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Northrop Grumman Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Northrop Grumman
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northrop Grumman. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Northrop Grumman Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northrop Grumman is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northrop Grumman's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northrop Grumman, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northrop Grumman within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 14.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Northrop Grumman Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northrop Grumman for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northrop Grumman can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Northrop Grumman generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 3 Reasons to Sell Northrop Grumman and 1 Stock to Buy Instead |
Northrop Grumman Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northrop Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northrop Grumman's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northrop Grumman's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.1 B |
Northrop Grumman Technical Analysis
Northrop Grumman's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northrop Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northrop Grumman. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northrop Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Northrop Grumman Predictive Forecast Models
Northrop Grumman's time-series forecasting models is one of many Northrop Grumman's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Northrop Grumman's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Northrop Grumman
Checking the ongoing alerts about Northrop Grumman for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Northrop Grumman help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Northrop Grumman generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 3 Reasons to Sell Northrop Grumman and 1 Stock to Buy Instead |
Check out Northrop Grumman Backtesting, Northrop Grumman Valuation, Northrop Grumman Correlation, Northrop Grumman Hype Analysis, Northrop Grumman Volatility, Northrop Grumman History as well as Northrop Grumman Performance. For information on how to trade Northrop Stock refer to our How to Trade Northrop Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northrop Grumman. If investors know Northrop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northrop Grumman listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.133 | Dividend Share 7.86 | Earnings Share 16.24 | Revenue Per Share 276.412 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.023 |
The market value of Northrop Grumman is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northrop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northrop Grumman's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northrop Grumman's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northrop Grumman's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northrop Grumman's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northrop Grumman's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northrop Grumman is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northrop Grumman's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.