Novan Inc Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.14
| NOVNDelisted Stock | USD 0.13 0.00 0.00% |
Novan |
Novan Target Price Odds to finish over 0.14
The tendency of Novan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 0.14 or more in 90 days |
| 0.13 | 90 days | 0.14 | about 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novan to move over $ 0.14 or more in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This Novan Inc probability density function shows the probability of Novan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Novan Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 0.13 and $ 0.14 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Novan has a beta of 0.68. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Novan average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Novan Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Novan Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Novan Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Novan
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novan Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novan Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novan is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novan's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novan Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novan within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -2.54 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Novan Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novan for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novan Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novan Inc is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Novan Inc has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Novan Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Novan Inc currently holds 3.93 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 4.3, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Novan Inc has a current ratio of 0.95, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Novan's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 23.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (31.31 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 313 K. | |
| Novan Inc currently holds about 14.9 M in cash with (30.88 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.61, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. |
Novan Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.3 M |
Novan Technical Analysis
Novan's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novan Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Novan Predictive Forecast Models
Novan's time-series forecasting models is one of many Novan's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Novan's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Novan Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Novan for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novan Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Novan Inc is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Novan Inc has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Novan Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Novan Inc currently holds 3.93 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 4.3, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Novan Inc has a current ratio of 0.95, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Novan's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 23.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (31.31 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 313 K. | |
| Novan Inc currently holds about 14.9 M in cash with (30.88 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.61, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Other Consideration for investing in Novan Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Novan Inc check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Novan's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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