National Refinery (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 208.51
| NRL Stock | 238.39 6.07 2.61% |
National |
National Refinery Target Price Odds to finish below 208.51
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 208.51 or more in 90 days |
| 238.39 | 90 days | 208.51 | about 22.05 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Refinery to drop to 208.51 or more in 90 days from now is about 22.05 (This National Refinery probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Refinery price to stay between 208.51 and its current price of 238.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon National Refinery has a beta of 0.14. This indicates as returns on the market go up, National Refinery average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding National Refinery will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally National Refinery has an alpha of 0.025, implying that it can generate a 0.025 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). National Refinery Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Refinery
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Refinery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Refinery Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Refinery is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Refinery's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Refinery, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Refinery within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 12.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
National Refinery Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Refinery's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Refinery's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 795.2 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 18.5 B |
National Refinery Technical Analysis
National Refinery's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Refinery. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Refinery Predictive Forecast Models
National Refinery's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Refinery's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Refinery's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards National Refinery in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, National Refinery's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from National Refinery options trading.
Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis
When running National Refinery's price analysis, check to measure National Refinery's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Refinery is operating at the current time. Most of National Refinery's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Refinery's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Refinery's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Refinery to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.